TOP METEOROLOGISTS PREDICT 11% INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES BY 2100, 20% MORE RAIN AT STORM CENTERS

[Permalink]

17 october 2013

We must face up to the rising threat from coastal storms

ByJulian Hunt and Johnny Chan, Dinancial Times, October 17, 2013

[Julian Hunt is a visiting professor at Delft University and former director of the British Meteorological Office. Johnny Chan is the chair of the World Meteorological Organisation’s Tropical Cyclone Panel and a chair professor at City University of Hong Kong]

The dangers to people and structures are growing, write Julian Hunt and Johnny Chan

India felt the full force of Cyclone Phailin last weekend – the strongest storm in the country for well over a decade. The hardest hit areas – Andhra Pradesh and Orissa – experienced widespread devastation, especially in coastal parts. The storm came almost a year after Hurricane Sandy caused such destruction in the Americas.

These events were disasters in their own rights – and a warning: there are good reasons to believe that storms could pose a bigger threat in the future. Not only are they likely to be more powerful but more people are living in their paths.

This is prompting fresh thinking about climate change and national security. For instance, a 2012 US National Research Council report commissioned by American military and intelligence agencies asserts that climate change is accelerating and will cause increasing numbers of disruptive events.

The World Meteorological Organisation’s committee on the relationship between climate change and tropical cyclones expects global warming to cause the average intensity of tropical cyclones to increase up to 11 per cent by 2100. In areas within 100km of storm centres, a rise in rainfall rates of about 20 per cent is also projected.


READ MORE


>>> Back to list