EU – UNDER BUSINESS AS USUAL, HUGE INCREASE IN EUROPEAN DEATHS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE BY 2100

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7 august 2017

[From the Dutch daily Trouw, 7 augustus 2017, print version, 4C translation of "Zonder ‘Parijs’veel klimaatdoden in Europa"]

WITHOUT PARIS ACCORD MANY DEATHS FROM CLIMATE IN EUROPE

Jeroen den Blijker, editor for sustainability and nature, Trouw, August 7, 2017

Extreme weather conditions from climate change are going to take a heavy toll in Europe. Between 2071 and 2100, they will take the lives of between 80,000 and 240,000 people annually, as opposed to about three thousand now. The victims will be primarily the elderly and ill, but also the poor who have no air conditioning or well insulated dwellings.

This emerges from a study of the research center of the European commission, published in the periodical The Lancet Planetary Health. The assumption is that nothing results from the climate agreements made in 2015 in Paris. Climate change leads to such extreme conditions as storms, heat waves, drought, forest fires and floods.

In the period 1981-2010 5% of Europeans (25 million people) experienced such a heat wave, flood or forest fire. In 2071 -2100, (without ‘Paris’) that will happen to two thirds of the European population. Heat waves are the most deadly. Because of this, the outlook for southern Europe are particularly somber. Heat waves with extreme temperatures now kill eleven per million inhabitants. In 2071-2100 that will be about seven hundred. Practically the entire population of southern Europe will on average experience one climate catastrophe per year, while one in three north Europeans will have the same experience. Climate change is thus the greatest global threat to human health according to the researchers.

They make us of 2300 reports from disaster data bases, combined with climate models and demographic studies. In their predictions, they maintain broad margins of uncertainty. For example, the estimate the number of “climate deaths” between 2041 and 2071 at 48,000 to 179,300.

In 1981-2010, about five million Europeans experienced water scarcity because of drought. In 2071-2100 that will be 138 million.

[In Trouw online of August 5, a similar article with a different text was posted at https://www.trouw.nl/groen/-klimaatverandering-kan-vijftig-keer-zo-veel-levens-gaan-kosten-~a8791272/]


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