BY 2045, SANDY-TYPE HURRICANES MAY FLOOD NEW YORK EVERY FIVE YEARS

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23 october 2017


New York City’s fate is closely tied to Antarctic ice, climate scientists warn


By Chris Mooney, The Washington Post, October 23 at 3:53 PM

New York City’s ability to withstand hurricanes could hinge on the state of the Antarctic ice sheet some 8,000 miles away, according to a study published Monday.

Using computer projections to simulate thousands of storms in potential future climates, researchers found that storms would be more likely to swerve away from the city. The trouble is the storms that do approach will, on average, be more powerful. And all storms that hit New York, regardless of their power, will start at a higher baseline, as they’ll be traveling on seas that have risen due to climate change.

The result is that the risk of a storm similar to Hurricane Sandy, albeit with a slightly smaller storm surge, has gone from a one-in-500-years event in 1800 to a one-in-25-years event today. By the period between 2030 and 2045, such storms could become a one-in-five-years event, according to the projections.

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